How the Nyansapo Barometer works
Independently conducted and published by Nyansapo — nonpartisan, transparent, and never built on our clients’ private data.
What the Barometer is
The Barometer is our own public research programme. Every figure we publish is owned by Nyansapo and consented for publication. We never publish a client’s private survey or campaign intelligence — those stay strictly confidential. The Barometer is the public, nonpartisan face of the same tools our clients use.
Where the numbers come from
House polls
Surveys we conduct ourselves, weighted to the EC voter register. We publish sample size, margin of error, field dates and the mode mix with every poll.
Model forecasts
Constituency-level projections from the Nyansa Swing Model, built on historical EC results and voter data — what we mean by “seats in play”.
Curated readings
Occasional editor-published figures (e.g. a national sentiment snapshot), clearly labelled as such.
How we collect data
We reach the real electorate — not just the urban, English-speaking, phone-owning slice — by collecting across five modes and in local languages (English, Twi, Ewe, Hausa and more). Responses are weighted to the national register so the sample reflects Ghana.
Margin of error
For each house poll we report a 95% confidence margin of error, computed as ±0.98 ÷ √n for a proportion (n = respondents). A larger sample means a smaller margin. We show it on every poll so you can judge the precision yourself.
The Nyansa Swing Model
The Swing Model estimates how competitive each of Ghana’s 275 constituencies is, from historical margins and voter data. We backtest it against past EC results and publish the accuracy openly. “Seats in play” counts the toss-up and competitive constituencies — the battleground that decides the election.